Where do you see the digital nomad culture in 10 years?

Question

Hello guys,
I was curious, how do you see the development of the digital nomad culture?
What will the status quo be 10 years from now?
I’m interested particularly in the interaction between the nomads and the cities they temporary live in. Are they in any way influencing them? Will there be a voice of the nomad community? Will they want to get more involved? Are digital nomad and social entrepreneur compatible?
There are many questions running through my head right now, please feel free to shoot any crazy assumption.

yivva · Accepted Answer

I’m not sure this would happen in the next 10 years, perhaps longer, but I can see there soon not being too much of a difference between a DN and any other person.
People will travel more, more companies will offer location independent positions. The line between where somebody lives and where they are just currently staying will blur even more. Residency won’t mean anything, the idea of a ‘holiday’ or vacation will mean less and less.
I’m obv not saying everybody will become entrepreneurs, but if having a remote job and being able to live in a foreign country without having to apply for a working visa applies as being a DN, then this is just what is happening more and more and will be the norm eventually.
IMO The best thing to happen would be for the term digital nomad to become obsolete. This would mean it is not even a thing anymore. Just the normal way future people live. A success in my book, humans reaching a new level of autonomy. No patriotism, no borders, no racism, awesome

jonmyers · Answer

I started this lifestyle with long periods on and off, back in Taipei, Taiwan 20 years ago. It has changed a lot.
Obviously, the tools and means we use to organize ourselves online to seek and manipulate information on our phones was more or less non-existent then.
I don’t know about predicting the future, but I would say - competition will heat up more fiercely for the means to live this lifestyle.
Meaning remote work and solopreneur businesses.
More people are switched on to this lifestyle as a possibility. I met a guy here in Saigon who gave up his cubicle at Apple to live this lifestyle and do his own thing. More highly intelligent, highly skilled people will dump the cubicle.
Thus, the field of competition will intensify, imo.
Additionally, as more enter into this lifestyle, it will come as no surprise that the advantages we enjoy today in terms of cost will rise. Prices will undoubtedly go up.
The big what if…
Many of us enjoy the lifestyle we lead due to currency advantages. The dollar, the euro and so on.
It’s hard to say if those will be lasting advantages.

I would say no matter what you’re doing, aim to be exceptional, the best, because competition is coming and prices will rise.

bavals · Answer

I don’t actually have an answer, but I rather a follow-up question. Something that’s been on my mind for a while. Lots of “doomers” predict a quick (but painful) end for commercial aviation sometime in the next decade or two. That alone would make a shambles out of many a DN’s plans, wouldn’t it?
I am on the fence in this whole singularitarian-doomer debate (and I am assuming folks here skew heavily toward an “optimistic” version of the future, at least in the sense most techno pips would probably use this term), but still, I can’t help but wonder: do you see any potential setbacks that could in theory jeopardize your DN lifestyle in the next decade? Political, economic, social, or otherwise?
p.s. Also, really going out on a limb here: does anyone here read Kunstler, Greer or similar authors/bloggers? If so, how do you square your lifestyle with their predictions: “drink and be merry” or some other way?

bavals · Answer

Great job, @levelsio!
This is actually a very good summary of what I call the wildly optimistic view. Almost all of the curves on your graphics bend one way only (upward or downward, many of them switching into exponential overdrive) and nothing is cyclical… except, possibly, the homeownership rate in the US. We’ll see about that.
So far so good! But then how do you explain such annoying snags as the above mentioned degradation of the Montreal-NYC line train service (takes longer in 2015 than a century ago!) and the fact it’s been more than a decade since the fastest-ever passenger jet last took to the skies? Aberrations? I’ll take that as a valid answer, but there are quite a few if you look closely. Shuttles stopped flying, NASA seems to be on its last legs, the Japanese don’t make robots like they used to and top-line Macs may even have stopped doubling their HD drive sizes every couple of years, as previously promised to me by Dr. Moore.
A city of the future? Maybe the Chinese know how to pull that one off, but last I remember, a person of no less a stature than Oscar Niemeyer tried to do something like that with Brasilia. Whether he failed or not, the jury is still out on that, but I note that very few people on this forum seem to want to go there.
Don’t answer all that, that was rhetorical. Really, I just wanted to congratulate you on your presentation skills. Also, I am curious when you think the bright future will finally arrive to take me from my Canadian home base to NYC for the cost of a subway ride and in something less than a full day of travel. Is 2035 a good date to pin my hopes on?

sergeyfilippov · Answer

Hi Mihai, great topic! Curious, what would be your answers to these questions?

eddie · Answer

I kind of agree with you. I do see more companies offering remote options IF that’s something they can do and the company is small enough. Mostly more tech related positions, sales/marketing, design, writing, communications, finance, and maybe a few other fields have the ability to work remotely.
However, I think it will stay more of a “niche” because most jobs have to be done on location. Think of food, retail, manual labor/construction, medical, warehouse/factory, etc… Also, most larger companies are against working remotely because they deal with larger teams and like to keep a “leash” on their employees.
If your company has a project with 50 people working on it. Think how difficult it would be to to accommodate several completely different timezones at the same time. This is why remote work is so big with start-ups and small businesses (it saves them money and they have small teams) Also, many CEOs and company owners aren’t convinced that working remotely is even good (think of how Yahoo revoked remote work a few years ago and I think Reddit did the same thing). Idk, maybe some new statistics or software will pop up making it even more easier to work remotely.
So I think it will get more popular, but then eventually level off. Also, I kind of like the term digital nomad. It helps me to better identity myself, like it’s a certain lifestyle that defines a whole ideology and mindset. It’s the first time in my life that I feel a sense of “belonging.” Don’t you dare try to take that away from me haha

bavals · Answer

Florian,
I’m glad you looked at the sites of the two doomers I mentioned. I don’t think you’re being completely fair, though. Granted, both guys are American and see many things through an American lens. However, they are both mostly interested in the underlying processes (mostly of the negative/destructive kind) and it appears that the U.S. right now is a trailblazer in regards to those.
Of the two, Kunstler is probably more obviously US-centric because his main critique is that of the American “urban form,” which he calls a “living arrangement with no future” – the vast, sprawling, ugly suburbia which requires the whole country to drive everywhere. Many of his books focus squarely on that.
As pertains to our (nomadic) business, his most interesting (and worrisome) prediction is what I mentioned in my previous post: that in a decade or two we may not even have a functioning airline industry to speak of. Therefore, he says, the US (and Canada) should invest in rail right now (forget high-speed – he’s convinced it will never happen on any significant scale – just maintain the old tracks and lay new ones while the money can be found).
If you’ve ever taken an Amtrak train from Montreal to New York City (12 hours, moving at ~45km/h, stops several times to let a freight train pass), his predictions will definitely ring true. Did you know that when trains started moving on this route about a century ago, they were vastly more comfortable and… arrived quicker (if I am not mistaken, 9 or 10 hours instead of 12)?
Greer is an even more colorful figure (one look at his photo will convince you of that), and I’d say his thinking is less US-centric. He sees us all as inhabiting one “civilization” – the industrial one – and he’s interested in the processes affecting this civilization. He’s also quite interested in what follows it (that it will end is not even questioned).
Again, looking at stuff directly relevant to us, here’s a small taste of his vision of the state of things in 2065 (taken from his blog):
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2015/04/the-death-of-internet-pre-mortem.html

Unless you’re one of the very rich or an employee of one of the institutions just named, furthermore, you won’t have access to the internet of 2065. You might be able to hack into it, if you have the necessary skills and are willing to risk a long stint in a labor camp, but unless you’re a criminal or a spy working for the insurgencies flaring in the South or the mountain West, there’s not much point to the stunt. If you’re like most Americans in 2065, you live in Third World conditions without regular access to electricity or running water, and you’ve got other ways to buy things, find out what’s going on in the world, find out how to get to the next town and, yes, look at pictures of people with their clothes off.

Certainly not the picture most of us here are painting in our heads, right?
Going back to the 10-year timeframe, if the overall trajectory outlined by Kunstler, Greer et al is correct, we’ll probably still be enjoying a decent (although declining) standard of living, as far as the availability of modern amenities, but the economic situation for many of us is likely to worsen, which can interfere with our chosen lifestyle.
If those who believe in the singularity are correct (assuming that progress is always happening and always accelerating, the Amtrak example above notwithstanding), then you can reverse the statement above. We’ll live better and have more clients, more places to visit (cheaper), more money and more things to spend it on. Personally, I’d like to hear from someone who can convincingly argue that viewpoint.
My personal observation is that the Nomad group curiously combines elements from both camps: we are not running for the hills (or the farms), so we’re probably more in the “techno-optimist” camp, but at the same time, we’re refusing to participate in the race to accumulate crap (traveling with even 1/10th of what a normal Westerner has at home would be impossible). We’re also clearly hedging our bets by not committing to one place. That to me reveals some underlying doubts about any particular place – even our birthplace – necessarily being “the best,” and maybe even some deep-seated anxiety about the future of many of those places. Ok, the psychology stuff will have to wait until another post.
P.S. I have not read Al Gore’s book (and to be honest, I am very skeptical because of the author), but I’ll look for a review/summary. Thanks for the suggestion!

levelsio · Answer

I did a presentation about this just after you asked actually 
Here’a a video and transcript of it: https://levels.io/future-of-digital-nomads/
In short, I think we’re early adopters and in 20 years a large proportion of the world will be remote workers moving around. Not just from the West, as travel becomes cheaper and developing countries richer, we’ll see an increase in digital nomads from China, India, South America.
The definition of digital nomad will change though. It won’t be just people like us traveling mostly because we’re privileged enough to do so, it’ll be people that work remotely and move to places for economic and social reasons.

floc · Answer

Singularity
I’m glad you mentioned the Singularity. You would expect it to be discussed much more in Digital Nomad circles. Aren’t we supposed to keep up with technological change?
Also of course, it’s hard to find any more serious issues in our near future 
As to the consequences, I’m in anxious avenue, as defined in waitbutwhy’s excellent summary.
Kunstler and Greer
At first I was really interested in what Kunstler and Greer have to say about collapse, but now an hour later, I can’t read another word of it.
USA this, USA that, US politics and FOX News are all that really matter. Who cares about what most of the world is doing?
Seriously, they seem like such stereotypical 'Mericans, trapped in their little bubble! Aren’t they?
Have you read “The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change”? It’s a very thoughtful book on similar topics and it actually looks at the whole world. Granted, it’s also US-centric at points, but it actually explains, why it is and states good reasons for that…

yivva · Answer

Competition will definitely increase. The prediction is that the global number of internet users will have doubled what it was a couple of years ago, by 2020.
That’s a lot of new people with technology and very cheap access to learning a lot of the skills that many DN’s use to currently support themselves.
You’re right about aiming to be exceptional. I have the same philosophy. Otherwise you end up going the other way, being the average guy who is willing to work for less money than the exceptional guy. Then somebody comes along, just as average, willing to work for slightly less than you. I think there will always be somebody out there willing to work harder and longer for less money. Not a battle you want to be a part of.

floc · Answer

Agreed, I was totally overgeneralizing and I certainly could have spent more time with their theories. But after too much about US shale oil and Fox News Pundits, I didn’t want to continue. That’s like hitting a straw man 
The main argument they both seem to be making is that we need oil to continue and we will run out of oil some decades away.
But oil isn’t the only fuel! There are many other energy sources and even other fossil fuels. Coal alone would last for centuries. (Concerns about climate certainly don’t seem to stop us from using it)
The big advantage of oil is, it’s highly mobile. But that’s a problem of energy storage, not of energy production. Hydrogen or better storage technologies will come to the rescue, once the price of oil is too high.
Even with today’s technology cars wouldn’t be a problem, homes wouldn’t be a problem, factories wouldn’t be a problem. Planes sure would need some work!
Will airfares be as cheap as today with something like Hydrogen technology? Maybe not, but anyone who claims to be able to predict something like that might be way off.
We will never run out of oil, because we will stop using it once it becomes too expensive. If electric cars take off in the next decades, we might never know how expensive…
I’m really not trying to talk risks down, I’m probably as much a doomsayer as they are. But I don’t understand why you would focus on oil of all things. Or did I totally misunderstand what they are saying?
Btw, fast passenger trains over here in Europe and also in China and Japan go 200km/h plus and the notion that they would have to wait for freight trains seems like a bad joke. Also, ofc, those trains are more expensive than flying…
I’m not from the US, so I’m totally missing out on what Al Gore is supposed to be about. I liked his TED talk, I loved his book and that’s all I really care about. Don’t have to marry him

yoamomonstruos · Answer

@bisonravi I wouldn’t say Brasília completely failed, but it’s definitely a difficult place to live if you don’t have a car. I’ve only lived in Brasília for the last 7 months, and I totally understand why most people wouldn’t want to visit here as a nomad. There isn’t so much to see (once you’ve explored all the beautiful architecture), it’s pretty expensive compared to other places in Brasil (except São Paulo or Rio I guess), there isn’t the biggest start-up scene here (not for a lack of seriously talented people) and for a capital city; It’s pretty hard/pricey to find good internet.
With all that said, it’s a great place with great people. Maybe just takes a little getting used to, but I know I’ll be heading back to London (or elsewhere) at some point in the near-ish future.

ericvan · Answer

I’ve worked solo overseas a few times, the first in 1993 Prague. Here are some issues that will have big impact IMHO:

Ongoing debate at companies about value of letting eployees work remotedly. I think those saying we need to work in same space for “collaboration” between employees will continue to win. Marissa Meyers forced everyone at Yahoo to work on site. Teams need to be in the same space much of the time if not most for majority of jobs… for most jobs.

It’s not for everyone. It’s easy to romanticize living abroad-- especially when you’re back home and remember the “grass always greener over there.” Fact is, most people like to try for a while but ultimately feel “home is where the heart is.” Those that don’t need to spend much time in their home country will remain the exception-- even if they can meet others from home…or close to home… it’s still not home.

The transient nature of the communities, many but not all of the nomad communities, can be exciting at first but it’s hard to constantly “lose friends” who spend their 2 years as nomads and head home.

It’s the folks working on their own that will grow hugely over the years. I think so many people are having a great time that the word is out and that will make more try it…I’d love to see numbers on growth of this lifestyle, but bet it’s far, far smaller than what it will be in 5-10 years. Some work areas, like programming, will provide the means to the lifestyle in much larger numbers, while other areas will get more competitive.

pummyjr · Answer

Thanks @levelsio for bringing all this info together in a very clear presentation. It has helped me understand a lot better the underlying forces that drive the DN movement further.
All the best,

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